I was proven right about the Syrian civil war

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by ABDeL, Jun 14, 2017.

  1. ABDeL

    ABDeL Site Advisor DiploGuard Our Creator

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    I wrote this 2 years ago:

    This development has come out today:


    Unless there is outside intervention stopping Iraqi militias from fighting in Syria against Bashar's enemies, I anticipate the war will be won and over in a maximum of 2 more years.
     
  2. Lord Massington

    Lord Massington The spirit of GOTE

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    finally ill be able to buy Syrian fig jam again!
     
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  3. Feanor

    Feanor Member Liaison Officer Global Moderator

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    Iraqi militias have been fighting in Syria since iirc 2015. Russian Airforce Il-76s were used to fly them in for the defense of Damascus initially. The difference here is that they now have a land corridor.
     
  4. ABDeL

    ABDeL Site Advisor DiploGuard Our Creator

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    Well yeah, don't forget the Shia Afghanis as well. The difference with a land corridor is now heavier equipment can be brought in to sharply tip the balance in the regime's favor.
     
  5. Ordo

    Ordo Lore Judge

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    Expect more "chemical attacks" by the regime
     
  6. VanDenDale

    VanDenDale The Chancellor

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    Now that's a prediction.

    Question though: Where do the Kurds fit into this outlook? What happens to them if the war ends?
     
  7. Feanor

    Feanor Member Liaison Officer Global Moderator

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    There's a good chance it won't end.
     
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  8. banebladeluv

    banebladeluv TEFLON COATED DiploGuard

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    Feanor's right, THE RIDE NEVER ENDS!

    Even if the conflict in Syria boils down, somewhere else in the Middle East will start new shit, its like a perpetual motion machine designed to profit arms manufacturers.

    Ain't you people ever played MGS 4?
     
  9. Feanor

    Feanor Member Liaison Officer Global Moderator

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    I was more specifically referencing the fact that the Kurds are likely to try and form a state of their own.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017

    It's important to keep in mind that Erdogan has a friendly relationship with Iraqi Kurdistan but a highly hostile one with both his domestic Kurds and the Syrian Kurds. If Iraqi Kurdistan becomes independent, it will be in a tricky position of whether to risk Turkish hostility or abandon their fellow Kurds. It's also very likely that the US will not simply let Iran get their Mediterranean corridor. The Iraqis and the Syrians, both with Iranian proxies, are about to establish a land corridor north-east of at-Tanf, the US outpost near Jordan that was initially meant to prevent just such a meeting. In that portion of southern Syria is a US military presence and a number of local (sort-of) proxies known as the New Syrian Army. While they're no match for the Syrians, the US airforce is. And with the deployment of HIMARS rocket-artillery systems, and several airstrikes already carried out by the coalition, against the Syrian Army, the capabilities are certainly there to put up a significant fight, especially in the near future as the corridor remains thin and tenuous on the Syrian side of the border.

    Additionally the rebels and even ISIS are still active in south-western Syria, including near the Israeli border where they have "allegedly" received aid from Israel. The Syrian Army has mostly left Deraa alone, in pursuit of more important and less problematic objectives, but it will likely remain a source of tension for some time to come. Finally there remains a high risk of Russo-Turkish confrontation over Idlib. The Turkish control zone, agreed upon with Russia, is in northern Syrian around al-Bab. Idlib province is in a bizarre middle ground where the rebels there are partially backed by Turkey but partially insane jihadis that can't be consistently controlled. So far the Syrian Army has refrained from a strategic offensive into Idlib province on two occasions. First in early 2016, when they took most of the Latakia mountains and were in a position to continue the push into Idlib, and second recently after defeating an offensive of al-Nusra and allies against Hama province, from Idlib. The Syrian counter-offensive pushed right up to Idlib but no strategic effort was mounted to press the success here.

    Partly it's a question of priorities. With the impending fall of ISIS, the SAA needs to take advantage and grab real-estate in Eastern Syria, opening a bigger road to Iraq and Iran. The SAA also wants to cut US-backed proxies (aside from the Kurds) from using southern Syria as a staging ground under the pretext of fighting ISIS. These two major offensives have been the priority. But ultimately there are also potential political problems that make an immediate push into Idlib problematic, leaving it as an unresolved conflict point.
     
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  10. EagleMan

    EagleMan Administrator Admin Map Maker

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    Now Abdel has the credentials to get a news commentator job. He can be one of those random "Middle East experts" that get trotted out.
     
  11. Feanor

    Feanor Member Liaison Officer Global Moderator

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    What, you mean the ones that routinely get shat on by professional analysts?
     
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